The future is predictable.

As a Bayesian, I believe the future is a random variable and as such I can use the data/past to determine my probability models.  Of course I can also evaluate the fit of my probability models and the implications of the posterior distribution.  Here I've modeled the probability of a shitstorm as binomial (I could use a better model suggestions?) given my observation of the past 15 years of my life.

Not looking good I admit. 

This past year the brain tumor reared its ugly head again leading to a second brain surgery.  Then to top that, I found out that the surgeons can't remove it all because it's too close to a little thing called a carotid artery, which if they nicked could lead to me bleeding to death. And now the biotech company, which I mostly enjoyed working for, is sinking.   Finalement - yesterday HippieHusband was laid off.

So the future is predictable.  Shitstorms happen.  Over and over again.  And the longer you live the more you accumulate.

The good news is that there is a dotted red line.  

More on the dotted line later.